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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still